School Behavioral Threat Assessment in Virginia: A Model Program
Violent acts on school property pose serious risks to school safety and present very real concerns for school personnel, government actors, and law enforcement who are tasked with keeping our schools safe. Non-lethal violence occurs in the majority of schools, typically in the form of physical attacks or fights. As if this isn’t troubling enough, non-lethal violence can escalate over time, often setting the stage for lethal events to occur. Likewise, active shooter incidents in schools have also become more common within the last five years.
To learn more about related topics of School Threat Assessment, Active Shooter Prevention, and Threat Assessment approaches, see our related blog posts:
In this post, we discuss a model school behavioral threat assessment program that was developed in the state of Virginia, where schools are required by law to establish threat assessment teams.
The evidence-based program has been touted by the National Institute of Justice and the Department of Education and is viewed nationally as the most thorough and comprehensive model for school behavioral threat assessment. Its core elements have been the backbone for thousands of school threat assessment teams nationwide.
Why School Behavioral Threat Assessment?
According to data from the National Policing Institute’s (formerly the National Police Foundation) Averted School Violence project, there are several different variations of school attacks.
Large-scale attacks with 10 or more victims are usually planned far in advance, are more likely to be ideologically-driven, and are more likely to be conducted by someone external to the school. In some cases, the perpetrator may regularly stalk the building in the weeks leading up to the incident.
Small-scale attacks with fewer victims are usually targeted against a specific group of people against whom the attacker has a grievance. These are sometimes planned in advance, but can also be unplanned and occur the same day that a grievance occurs. The latter scenario often involves a perpetrator carrying a gun at school who does not have prior intentions of committing an attack, yet they end up doing so in the face of unexpected circumstances.
Given that so many of these attacks are pre-planned, risk factors and pre-attack behaviors can be identified and addressed to prevent these tragedies from occurring. This is where school behavioral threat assessment can be helpful. Threat assessment involves observing student behaviors and interactions and taking note of potential red flags.
About School Behavioral Threat Assessment
School behavioral threat assessment and early intervention for students with emotional and behavioral challenges is key to preventing problems from escalating, even when there are no direct warning signs of violence. A 2021 report identified many instances where targeted school attacks were prevented by people who recognized the indicators of violence and reported their concerns. In that report, school behavioral threat assessment teams were referred to as “the foundation of early identification and intervention.”
Research also shows that well trained and properly equipped school resource officers are a key resource for prevention and response to school attacks, and there are emerging recommendations for law enforcement based on current data. Among the recommendations, a key theme is the need for strong relationships between the members of the school behavioral threat assessment team and their ability to openly communicate before an attack occurs. Having multiple channels of communication for employees, students, and parents to report concerns is ideal.
Communication about potential threats can be facilitated via a unified platform, such as a centralized tip line or mobile app. The information can then be organized, evaluated, and assessed by the school behavioral threat assessment team, who can identify prohibited and concerning behaviors, assess the credibility of potential threats, and determine whether law enforcement intervention is needed. To learn more about gathering tips and addressing threats, check out recommendations from the National Institute of Justice and the National School Safety and Security Services.
Comprehensive Guidelines
The Comprehensive School Threat Assessment Guidelines (CSTAG) is an evidence-based model for recognizing and responding to student threats of violence. The approach was originally developed in 2001 by researchers at the University of Virginia as the “Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines” (VSTAG), but was aptly renamed in 2018 after being widely adopted by schools across the country.
Under this model, school behavioral threat assessment is conducted by multi-disciplinary teams that include one or more mental health professionals (e.g., counselor, school psychologist), a law enforcement officer (typically a school resource officer), a school administrator, and other staff such as teachers.
The guidelines discuss what problem behaviors to look out for, how to differentiate between transient and substantive threats, and how to resolve threats before they escalate. There is a strong emphasis on early identification of problem behaviors such as bullying, teasing, and other forms of student conflict, under the premise that problem behaviors can escalate to violence if unaddressed. A five-step decision tree is used to help school behavioral threat assessment teams develop safety plans that address the problem or conflict underlying the threat.
The first two steps focus on determining whether a threat is transient or substantive. An example of a transient threat would be if someone made a statement in anger but had no genuine intent to harm anyone. When a threat cannot be resolved as a transient threat, it is considered a substantive threat and requires further intervention to prevent the act from being carried out.
The final three steps of the decision tree focus on extensively assessing and determining the seriousness of a substantive threat. The decision tree then guides the school behavioral threat assessment team on how to proceed based on how serious the threat is. In the most serious cases, the team will conduct a “safety evaluation,” which involves a law enforcement investigation and mental health assessment of the student.
For an example of how the decision tree has been applied in real life, see this case study.
Research & Evaluation
The CSTAG has been extensively examined through numerous field tests and controlled studies and is a model evidence-based program for reducing school violence. To date, the model has helped resolve thousands of student threats before serious injury occurred.
An initial field test of the CSTAG found that 70% of threats could be resolved quickly as transient threats, while 30% were considered substantive threats and required a more extensive response. Suspected students were suspended, expelled, or placed into an alternative school. As a result, none of the threatened acts were carried out.
A follow-up study found very similar results. In that study, about half of the identified threats were substantive, but none of them were carried out. Because the school behavioral threat assessment team identified these threats in advance, they were able to take necessary protective action and provide needed educational and mental health services to suspected students.
Schools that use the CSTAG have also seen various improvements in student behaviors, with empirical studies documenting substantial reductions in peer aggression, bullying, and student suspensions. Other research found that students in CSTAG schools were more likely to seek help from adults when problems arose. In addition, teachers and students have reported that having school behavioral threat assessment teams makes them feel safer.
So far, the research on the CSTAG is compelling and extensive. You can see the full list of empirical studies here. For more information on the guidelines themselves, you can review the full-length CSTAG manual or check out University of Virginia’s website on school behavioral threat assessment. The decision tree and associated forms for conducting threat assessment are also available for free download.
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